With Maharashtra recording nearly a five percentage point jump in voter turnout and touching 66.05% in the Assembly polls, its highest since 1995, a granular look at the data reveals that 268 of the 288 seats in the state registered a spike as compared to 2019 while 20 saw a decline.
In the election on Wednesday, 11 constituencies saw an over 10 percentage point increase in turnout while it was more than five percentage points in 102 seats. Eight of the 11 seats are in Thane (6) and Palghar (2) districts, the former being Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s home turf and the latter seen as a region where he holds considerable sway.
The constituencies in Thane that saw over 10 percentage point increase in turnout are Belapur, Kopri-Pachpakhadi, Kalyan Rural, Kalyan East, Kalyan West, and Dombivli while in neighbouring Palghar district it was seen in the two ST-reserved seats of Palghar and Dahanu.
Of the 45 seats which saw a drop in voting percentage, 17 fall in the Marathwada region. “The flip flop on the part of Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, who has tried to alienate BJP and Devendra Fadnavis probably did not go well with voters. The lack of enthusiasm among voters in these high-profile constituencies is an indicator,” said a BJP leader.
The increased voter turnout in a majority of the seats, however, has left experts in two minds, with Dr Surendra Jondhale, a former professor at the Department of Civics and Politics of Mumbai University saying the phenomenon indicated anti-incumbency but the scenario was different this time.
“It is said that a greater turnout indicates that the vote is against the government but this time, it is important to see which sections have come out in large numbers: minorities, Dalits, women or any particular caste group,” he said.
Jondhale said the numbers show that voters in rural areas outdid their urban counterparts. “Rural Maharashtra has recorded a 70% turnout while in urban areas the number stands at 55%. This will also impact the outcome of the polls,” he said.
The considerable rise in the number of people coming out to vote has led both alliances, the ruling Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), to believe that their prospects of winning the polls have brightened.
“Whenever there is an increase in turnout, the BJP gains politically. It is evident that the polling percentage in Assembly elections has increased as compared to the last elections. This will help both the BJP and Mahayuti,” said Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.
State Congress chief Nana Patole claimed that based on the turnout the MVA looks set to win the election. “In the Assembly elections, there is significant enthusiasm among the people, and the self-respecting citizens of Maharashtra will elect a government that prioritises the state’s welfare. Considering the public’s response, the Congress party will emerge as the largest party in the state. The formation of a Maha Vikas Aghadi government in the state is certain,” he said.
According to data from the Election Commission (EC), 91 seats saw a 5-10 percentage point turnout hike while 41 seats saw a spike up to 5 percentage points, with the constituency of Palghar seeing the steepest rise of 23.82 percentage points. Here, the Shiv Sena’s former MP Rajendra Gavit locked horns with Jayendra Dubla of the Sena (UBT). It saw a voting percentage of 71.05% on Thursday compared to 47.23% in 2019.
Following Palghar was Dombivli in Thane, which saw a rise of 15.37 percentage points. In a seat where BJP minister Ravindra Chavan was up against the Sena (UBT)’s Dipesh Mhatre, the turnout jumped from 40.82% in 2019 to 56.19%.
The seat that saw the highest drop in polling percentage was Pen in Raigad district, where sitting BJP MLA Ravi Patil was up against Atul Mhatre and Prasad Bhoir of the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP) and Sena (UBT), respectively. Here, the voting percentage jumped from 63.4% in 2019 to 71.49%. The Nanded South seat, where sitting Congress MLA Mohan Hambarde was pitted against the Sena’s Anand Tikde, saw the turnout fall from 64.13% to 58.02%.
