In 2024, politics took a surprise turn in India, its immediate neighbourhood, and in many countries around the world.
These developments were unprecedented at some places, swift or unexpected in others – and in many cases hold the potential to usher in dynamic shifts in discourses and narratives.
In India and elsewhere, relationships between political parties and actors continued to fray, divisions between the governing and opposition parties deepened, and their mutual animosity worsened.
The scale of Donald Trump’s victory in the United States and Keir Starmer’s landslide in the United Kingdom was astonishing, and the speed with which long-standing regimes, like those of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, collapsed, stunned the world.
Elsewhere in India’s neighbourhood, the victory of Anura Kumara Dissanayake in Sri Lanka was not foreseen by many. And Pakistan continued to sink ever deeper into political chaos.
In Europe, France and Germany saw political upheavals, with governments losing the confidence of Parliament, which signalled uncertainty and potential crises in the new year.
In India, a third term for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi was very much on the cards. The Lok Sabha election had appeared more like a formality to many. The BJP was upbeat after the opening of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. The stock market was doing well. It seemed like a done deal.
But the outcome stunned the BJP, and forced Modi to form a government with ideologically diverse regional parties for the first time in his political career. The opposition was jubilant, and many began to believe the BJP was beginning to lose its grip on power.
And then came another surprise. The BJP bounced back in spectacular fashion in the Assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra, regaining its electoral mojo and putting the opposition, especially the Congress, under pressure again. The Congress, which was inexplicably euphoric after suffering its third straight defeat in Lok Sabha elections, now faces increasing challenges from its INDIA allies.
The year also saw the democratic electoral process return to Jammu and Kashmir. Despite the presence of candidates backed by Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party and Jamaat-e-Islami in the fray, the people kept their faith in mainstream parties.
In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik and the BJD exited after a record 24 years in power, a minor political earthquake in itself.
2024 was an election year. 2025 offers a window to look beyond elections. This will perhaps be a year in which governance will take centre stage. There are pressing challenges on the economic front as growth has slowed more than expected in the second quarter.
Here’s a look at five broad issues, trends, and developments that could shape the political discourse in India in 2025 and beyond.
1. Deepening political bitterness
One message from the 2024 Lok Sabha election was the people’s preference for continuity with moderation. But both the BJP and Congress seem to have consciously chosen to misread the mandate. Their political positions have hardened, and they have taken their bitter rivalry into everyday politics, Parliament, and beyond. As the year ended, ties between the ruling party and the opposition hit the nadir during Parliament’s winter session.
By their words and actions, the two sides have left little scope for the democratic prerequisite of conversation or engagement — whether inside Parliament or outside. For the first time in the history of the Indian republic, opposition parties have initiated an attempt, albeit abortive, to remove the Vice President from office. While the target was Jagdeep Dhankhar, the move was clearly aimed at the government.
The ugly fracas in Parliament — and filing of an FIR against Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi — will only deepen the animosity. For things to regain a semblance of normalcy, the two sides will have to find some middle ground for engagement and conversation, even as they pursue their respective political and ideological goals.
2. Mandir-Masjid, continued
The Supreme Court has called a halt, for now, to the rush of civil suits challenging the ownership and title of Muslim places of worship allegedly built over the ruins of existing Hindu temples. And RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat has said that after the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, raking up similar issues in new places was not acceptable.
But it is unlikely that politics over mandir and masjid will cease in 2025. At least 18 petitions regarding 10 mosques/ shrines are currently pending in courts. The bulk of the new suits claiming Hindu rights over Muslim sites have been filed in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP suffered heavy losses at the hands of the SP and Congress in the Lok Sabha election. Assembly elections are more than two years away, but the political landscape in Uttar Pradesh has already begun heating up.
3. Two elections, three brands
The major Assembly elections in 2025 will be a test for three major political brands — Nitish Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal, and Narendra Modi.
For more than two decades, Nitish has turned political and electoral setbacks into opportunities, in the end always managing to stay afloat. He has also been accused of repeatedly choosing political expediency over ideology.
The Assembly election in Bihar, scheduled for October-November 2025, will be a big test for brand Nitish, whose political obituary has been written more than once. The election will also test the political mettle of Tejashwi Yadav, waiting in the wings for long to become Chief Minister of Bihar.
Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party, in power in Delhi since 2013, is under pressure like never before. Will Kejriwal, who was jailed on charges of corruption and resigned as Chief Minister once out on bail, be able to propel the AAP to a consecutive third term?
More than a decade ago, AAP became India’s most successful political startup — today, both Kejriwal’s image and his brand of politics are at stake.
The brand value of the Prime Minister too, will be tested in both Bihar and Delhi. The BJP has been in political wilderness in Delhi for more than two and a half decades, despite winning all seven Lok Sabha seats thrice since 2014.
4. Controversial legislation
At least two contentious and polarising Bills will be taken up by Parliament in 2025 — the Constitution Amendment Bill to synchronise Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, and the Bill to regulate Wakf properties.
The One Nation, One Election Bills — now referred to a Joint Committee of Parliament — will test the BJP’s ability to walk across the aisle. The Bill to amend the Constitution will require a special majority — of more than 50% of the total membership of the House and two-thirds of members present and voting — to pass. The BJP does not have that kind of majority in both Houses.
Over the last 10 years, the BJP has managed to push through contentious legislation, including the Bill to bifurcate Jammu and Kashmir and downgrade the (erstwhile) state into two Union Territories. The dynamics are different now. Almost the entire opposition is united against the One Nation, One Election proposal. And the Wakf Bill will test the BJP’s ability to negotiate with allies like TDP and JD(U), which have substantial Muslim support bases.
5. Caste, Census, UCC
In a year when the central government intends to begin the delayed decadal Census exercise, the rhetoric over caste will only get shriller. The big question is whether the government will incorporate caste in the Census — a political minefield that the BJP has so far avoided stepping into.
The Congress believes the plank of caste and social justice can counter the BJP’s Hindutva push. And it is for this same reason that the BJP has been giving political slogans like “Batenge toh katenge” and “Ek hain to safe hain”. The Prime Minister has framed the poor, youth, women and farmers as the “biggest castes”. The rhetoric in Parliament over the legacy of B R Ambedkar signals that the gloves are well and truly off.
In his Independence Day Address, the Prime Minister stressed on the need to move toward a “secular civil code” instead of the existing “communal civil code”, and he returned to the topic while replying to the debate on 75 years of the Constitution in Lok Sabha.
Home Minister Amit Shah has declared that like Uttarakhand, BJP governments in every state will bring a common civil code. The Uttarakhand UCC will come into effect in January 2025. The BJP has Chief Ministers in 14 states, including states in the Northeast. Efforts to push the UCC envelope could open up new cleavages in the polity.
Manoj CG is Chief of Political Bureau, The Indian Express
NEXT: THE ECONOMY
Why should you buy our Subscription?
You want to be the smartest in the room.
You want access to our award-winning journalism.
You don’t want to be misled and misinformed.
Choose your subscription package
